DealBook: U.S. and States Prepare to Sue S.&P. Over Mortgage Ratings

The Justice Department, along with state prosecutors, plans to file civil charges against Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service, accusing the firm of fraudulently rating mortgage bonds that led to the financial crisis, people briefed on the plan said Monday.

Up until last last week, the Justice Department had been in settlement talks with S.&P., these people said. But the negotiations broke down after the Justice Department said it would seek a settlement in excess of “10 figures,” or at least $1 billion, these people said, which would wipe out the profits of S.&P.’s parent, the McGraw-Hill Company, for an entire year.

McGraw-Hill earned $911 million last year.

A suit against S.&P. would be the first the government has brought against the credit ratings agencies related to the financial crisis, despite continued questions about the agencies’ conflicts of interest and role in creating a housing bubble.

By bringing a civil suit, as opposed to a criminal case, the Justice Department’s burden of proof will be less, perhaps lowering the bar for a successful prosecution.

In a statement on Monday, S.&P. said it had received notice from the Justice Department over a pending lawsuit.

The ratings agency argued any such legal action would be baseless, since it downgraded plenty of mortgage-backed investments, including in the two years leading up to the financial crisis. It also contended that other observers of the debt markets, including government officials, believed at the time that any problems within the housing sector could be contained.

“A D.O.J. lawsuit would be entirely without factual or legal merit,” the agency said in its statement. “With 20/20 hindsight, these strong actions proved insufficient – but they demonstrate that the D.O.J. would be wrong in contending that S.&P. ratings were motivated by commercial considerations and not issued in good faith.”

Shares in McGraw-Hill were down 3.8 percent in midafternoon trading on Monday, at $56.07.

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L.A. County removing metal detectors from some hospital facilities

It was typically chaotic in the emergency room at Los Angeles County/USC Medical Center that February day in 1993. Richard May was treating patients in the triage area when a disgruntled man started ranting about the long wait. Then, without warning, the man pulled a gun and started shooting, hitting May in the head, chest and arm and seriously wounding two other doctors.

The carnage, coming after a series of violent incidents, prompted a wave of safety improvements, including the installation of metal detectors at hospital entrances, bulletproof enclosures in emergency rooms and the addition of more security guards.

Now, 20 years after the attack, officials want the metal detectors removed from parts of county hospitals to make them more welcoming to patients in the newly competitive marketplace being created by the Obama administration's healthcare overhaul. The machines in the emergency rooms will remain, but the others are to be taken out by summer. The proposal comes at a time when high-profile shootings have put the nation on edge and prompted emotionally charged debates about the availability of assault weapons and the presence of armed officers in schools.

The county's director of Health Services, Mitchell Katz, says metal detectors stigmatize poor patients and visitors and give the impression that the county facilities are dangerous. Security is paramount, but metal detectors aren't the best way to ensure that, he argues. Most other urban hospitals in L.A. County do not have the machines, relying on guards to provide safety, he said.

"It is a different moment to look and ask ourselves, 'What is the best way to do security?'" Katz said.

But the proposed changes have patients, nurses and doctors worried and are drawing opposition from law enforcement and union members.

May, 67, who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder, is among those asking administrators to reconsider. He works part-time at the county's Hudson Comprehensive Health Center south of downtown, where he says the metal detector gives patients and staff peace of mind.

"I feel angry, frustrated and resentful," he said of the proposal to remove the devices. "We wouldn't have been shot if they were there then."

Paul Kaszubowski, 64, another doctor shot in 1993, said the bullet shattered his arm and grazed his head. He still suffers problems with his arm and has occasional flashbacks. Removing the metal detectors doesn't make sense, he said. Providing compassionate and high-quality care is the best way to attract and retain patients, he said.

Beginning next year, uninsured patients will be eligible for Medi-Cal coverage and have more options outside of the county's healthcare system. That is driving safety-net hospitals to improve their customer service so they are no longer the providers of last resort.

But that push is running headlong into a record of violence at urban medical facilities, where healthcare workers are often the victims of assault. Hospitals are intrinsically high-risk places, and metal detectors can help prevent violent attacks, said Jane Lipscomb, a University of Maryland professor who has studied hospital safety.

The county's largest public hospital workers' union is trying to stop the removal of the scanners and sent a letter to Katz saying the action is a "huge decision" that could put patients and staff in harm's way.

Longtime County/USC nurse Sabrina Griffin, a union representative, vividly remembers the 1993 shooting and fears something similar could happen again if the screening equipment is removed. She particularly worries about gang retaliation spilling into the hospital after a shooting or stabbing.

"I just feel safer having the scanners," she said.

Sheriff's Department Capt. Chuck Stringham, who oversees security at the county healthcare facilities, said late Friday that the department is opposed to the wholesale removal of the metal detectors without another plan for weapons screening.

County hospitals mirror the crime and violence of surrounding communities, he said, and the scanners serve as the first line of defense — finding guns, knives, box cutters and other weapons.

The county removed the metal detector equipment from the outpatient building at County/USC in July, and no violent incidents have been reported there since doing so, according to the Sheriff's Department. By June 30, the county plans to remove 26 more machines from County/USC, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Olive View Medical Center and the Martin Luther King and Hudson centers.

Patients and visitors entering another County/USC facility last week emptied their pockets of cellphones, keys and wallets before stepping through the scanners. In a period of a few hours, guards confiscated two pocketknives.

Walter Johnson, 59, who had an eye appointment, said removing the machines is "crazy." "How would they know if anyone is coming in with a gun, or an AK-47, or a knife?" he said. "The minute you take these out, you are gonna give some idiot some excuse to do something."

Michelle Mendez, an ER nurse, said metal detectors are needed in the emergency room but not elsewhere. "I think [visitors] would feel more comfortable when visiting their loved ones, knowing we aren't so concerned about violence and crime and weapons," she said.

Tammy Duong, a medical resident in the psychiatric unit, said the machines can be intimidating. But she worries about what might happen without them.

"Just because it is a hospital," she said, "doesn't mean violence can't spill over."

anna.gorman@latimes.com

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Wired Science Space Photo of the Day: Wheatley Crater on Venus

Magellan radar image of Wheatley crater on Venus. This 72 km diameter crater shows a radar bright ejecta pattern and a generally flat floor with some rough raised areas and faulting. The crater is located in Asteria Regio at 16.6N,267E.

Image: NASA/GSFC [high-resolution]

Caption: NASA

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Affleck’s ‘Argo’ wins Directors Guild top honor

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Ben Affleck has won the top film honor from the Directors Guild of America for his CIA thriller “Argo,” further sealing its status as best-picture front-runner at the Academy Awards.

Saturday’s prize also normally would make Affleck a near shoo-in to win best-director at the Feb. 24 Oscars, since the Directors Guild recipient nearly always goes on to claim the same prize at Hollywood’s biggest night.

But Affleck surprisingly missed out on an Oscar directing nomination, along with several other key favorites, including fellow Directors Guild contenders Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty” and Tom Hooper for “Les Miserables.”

Affleck’s Oscar snub has not hurt “Argo” and may even have earned it some favor among awards voters as an underdog favorite. “Argo” has dominated other awards since the Oscar nominations.

“I don’t think that this makes me a real director, but I think it means I’m on my way,” said Affleck, who won for just his third film behind the camera.

The Directors Guild honors continued Hollywood’s strange awards season, which could culminate with a big Oscar win for Affleck’s “Argo.” The guild’s prize for best director typically is a final blessing for the film that goes on to win best-picture and director at the Oscars.

Affleck can go only one-for-two at the Oscars, though. While “Argo” is up for best picture, the director’s branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences overlooked him for a directing slot.

Backstage at the Directors Guild honors, Affleck said he had nothing but respect for the academy and that “you’re not entitled to anything.”

“I’m thrilled and honored that the academy nominated me as a producer of the movie,” Affleck said. “I know our movie, we’re a little bit underdog and a little bit the little engine that could, and you take me out of it maybe helps … it’s just about that picture. I feel like it’s OK, I’m really lucky, I’m in a good place.”

With 12 Oscar nominations, Steven Spielberg’s Civil War saga “Lincoln” initially looked like the Oscar favorite over such other potential favorites as “Argo,” ”Les Miserables” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” since films generally have little chance of winning best picture if they are not nominated for best director. Only three films have done it in 84 years, most recently 1989′s best-picture champ “Driving Miss Daisy,” which failed to earn a directing nomination for Bruce Beresford.

But Affleck’s “Argo,” in which he also stars as a CIA operative who hatches a bold plan to rescue six Americans during the hostage crisis in Iran, has swept up all the major awards since the Oscar nominations. “Argo” won best drama and director at the Golden Globes and top film honors from the Screen Actors Guild and the Producers Guild of America.

Many of the same film professionals who vote in guild awards also cast ballots for the Oscars, so all the wins for “Argo” are a strong sign that the film has the inside track for best picture.

Milos Forman, a two-time Directors Guild and Oscar winner for “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Amadeus,” received the group’s lifetime-achievement award. Guild President Taylor Hackford let the crowd in a toast to Forman, who was ill and unable to attend.

Malik Bendjelloul won the guild’s documentary award for “Searching for Sugar Man,” his study of the fate of critically acclaimed but obscure 1970s singer-songwriter Rodriquez. The film also is nominated for best documentary at the Oscars.

Jay Roach won the guild trophy for TV movies and miniseries for “Game Change,” his drama starring Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin in her 2008 vice-presidential run.

Roach said that he watched John McCain rush to choose Palin as his running-mate, potentially putting her second in line for the presidency.

“I said, ‘We gotta talk about this,’” Roach joked.

“Girls” star Lena Dunham earned the guild honor for TV comedy, while Rian Johnson won for drama series for “Breaking Bad.”

Dunham won for directing the pilot of “Girls,” which focuses on the lives of a group of women in their 20s.

“It is such an unbelievable honor to be in the company of the people in this room, who have made me want to do this with my life,” Dunham said.

Filmmaker Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Babel,” ”Amores Perros”) won for best commercial for a Procter and Gamble spot he directed.

Among other TV winners:

— Reality program: Brian Smith, “Master Chef.”

— Musical variety: Glenn Weiss, “The 66th Annual Tony Awards.”

— Daytime serial: Jill Mitwell, “One Life to Live.”

— Children’s program: Paul Hoen, “Let It Shine.”

Affleck’s win Saturday nicks the Directors Guild record as a strong forecast for the eventual directing recipient at the Oscars. Only six times in the 64-year history of the guild awards has the winner there failed to follow up with an Oscar. This will be the seventh, since Affleck is not up for the best-director Oscar.

Peer loyalty might play in Affleck’s favor at the Oscars. The acting branch in particular, the largest block of the academy’s 5,900 members, might really throw its weight behind “Argo” because of Affleck’s directing snub. Actors love it when one of their own moves into a successful directing career, and Affleck — who’s rarely earned raves for his dramatic chops — also delivers one of his best performances in “Argo.”

Affleck has had no traction in acting honors this season, and he’s joked that no one considered it a snub when he wasn’t nominated for best actor. So a best-picture vote for “Argo” might be viewed as making right his omission from the directing lineup and acknowledging what a double-threat talent he’s become in front of and behind the camera.

A best-picture prize also would send Affleck home with an Oscar. The award would go to the producers of “Argo”: George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Affleck.

But it’s not as though Affleck has never gotten his due at Hollywood awards before. He and Matt Damon jump-started their careers with 1997′s “Good Will Hunting,” for which they shared a screenplay Oscar.

___

AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen contributed to this report.

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Concerns About A.D.H.D. Practices and Amphetamine Addiction

Before his addiction, Richard Fee was a popular college class president and aspiring medical student. "You keep giving Adderall to my son, you're going to kill him," said Rick Fee, Richard's father, to one of his son's doctors.

VIRGINIA BEACH — Every morning on her way to work, Kathy Fee holds her breath as she drives past the squat brick building that houses Dominion Psychiatric Associates.

Matt Eich for The New York Times

MENTAL HEALTH CLINIC Dominion Psychiatric Associates in Virginia Beach, where Richard Fee was treated by Dr. Waldo M. Ellison. After observing Richard and hearing his complaints about concentration, Dr. Ellison diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and prescribed the stimulant Adderall.

It was there that her son, Richard, visited a doctor and received prescriptions for Adderall, an amphetamine-based medication for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. It was in the parking lot that she insisted to Richard that he did not have A.D.H.D., not as a child and not now as a 24-year-old college graduate, and that he was getting dangerously addicted to the medication. It was inside the building that her husband, Rick, implored Richard’s doctor to stop prescribing him Adderall, warning, “You’re going to kill him.”

It was where, after becoming violently delusional and spending a week in a psychiatric hospital in 2011, Richard met with his doctor and received prescriptions for 90 more days of Adderall. He hanged himself in his bedroom closet two weeks after they expired.

The story of Richard Fee, an athletic, personable college class president and aspiring medical student, highlights widespread failings in the system through which five million Americans take medication for A.D.H.D., doctors and other experts said.

Medications like Adderall can markedly improve the lives of children and others with the disorder. But the tunnel-like focus the medicines provide has led growing numbers of teenagers and young adults to fake symptoms to obtain steady prescriptions for highly addictive medications that carry serious psychological dangers. These efforts are facilitated by a segment of doctors who skip established diagnostic procedures, renew prescriptions reflexively and spend too little time with patients to accurately monitor side effects.

Richard Fee’s experience included it all. Conversations with friends and family members and a review of detailed medical records depict an intelligent and articulate young man lying to doctor after doctor, physicians issuing hasty diagnoses, and psychiatrists continuing to prescribe medication — even increasing dosages — despite evidence of his growing addiction and psychiatric breakdown.

Very few people who misuse stimulants devolve into psychotic or suicidal addicts. But even one of Richard’s own physicians, Dr. Charles Parker, characterized his case as a virtual textbook for ways that A.D.H.D. practices can fail patients, particularly young adults. “We have a significant travesty being done in this country with how the diagnosis is being made and the meds are being administered,” said Dr. Parker, a psychiatrist in Virginia Beach. “I think it’s an abnegation of trust. The public needs to say this is totally unacceptable and walk out.”

Young adults are by far the fastest-growing segment of people taking A.D.H.D medications. Nearly 14 million monthly prescriptions for the condition were written for Americans ages 20 to 39 in 2011, two and a half times the 5.6 million just four years before, according to the data company I.M.S. Health. While this rise is generally attributed to the maturing of adolescents who have A.D.H.D. into young adults — combined with a greater recognition of adult A.D.H.D. in general — many experts caution that savvy college graduates, freed of parental oversight, can legally and easily obtain stimulant prescriptions from obliging doctors.

“Any step along the way, someone could have helped him — they were just handing out drugs,” said Richard’s father. Emphasizing that he had no intention of bringing legal action against any of the doctors involved, Mr. Fee said: “People have to know that kids are out there getting these drugs and getting addicted to them. And doctors are helping them do it.”

“...when he was in elementary school he fidgeted, daydreamed and got A’s. he has been an A-B student until mid college when he became scattered and he wandered while reading He never had to study. Presently without medication, his mind thinks most of the time, he procrastinated, he multitasks not finishing in a timely manner.”

Dr. Waldo M. Ellison

Richard Fee initial evaluation

Feb. 5, 2010

Richard began acting strangely soon after moving back home in late 2009, his parents said. He stayed up for days at a time, went from gregarious to grumpy and back, and scrawled compulsively in notebooks. His father, while trying to add Richard to his health insurance policy, learned that he was taking Vyvanse for A.D.H.D.

Richard explained to him that he had been having trouble concentrating while studying for medical school entrance exams the previous year and that he had seen a doctor and received a diagnosis. His father reacted with surprise. Richard had never shown any A.D.H.D. symptoms his entire life, from nursery school through high school, when he was awarded a full academic scholarship to Greensboro College in North Carolina. Mr. Fee also expressed concerns about the safety of his son’s taking daily amphetamines for a condition he might not have.

“The doctor wouldn’t give me anything that’s bad for me,” Mr. Fee recalled his son saying that day. “I’m not buying it on the street corner.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 3, 2013

An earlier version of a quote appearing with the home page presentation of this article misspelled the name of a medication. It is Adderall, not Aderall.

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Iceland, Prosecutor of Bankers, Sees Meager Returns

Ilvy Njiokiktjien for The New York Times

"Greed is not a crime. But the question is: where does greed lead?" said Olafur Hauksson, a special prosecutor in Reykjavik.

REYKJAVIK, Iceland — As chief of police in a tiny fishing town for 11 years, Olafur Hauksson developed what he thought was a basic understanding of the criminal mind. The typical lawbreaker, he said, recalling his many encounters with small-time criminals, “clearly knows that he crossed the line” and generally sees “the difference between right and wrong.”

Today, the burly, 48-year-old former policeman is struggling with a very different sort of suspect. Reassigned to Reykjavik, the Icelandic capital, to lead what has become one of the world’s most sweeping investigation into the bankers whose actions contributed to the global financial crisis in 2008, Mr. Hauksson now faces suspects who “are not aware of when they crossed the line” and “defend their actions every step of the way.”

With the global economy still struggling to recover from the financial maelstrom five years ago, governments around the world have been criticized for largely failing to punish the bankers who were responsible for the calamity. But even here in Iceland, a country of just 320,000 that has gone after financiers with far more vigor than the United States and other countries hit by the crisis, obtaining criminal convictions has proved devilishly difficult.

Public hostility toward bankers is so strong in Iceland that “it is easier to say you are dealing drugs than to say you’re a banker,” said Thorvaldur Sigurjonsson, the former head of trading for Kaupthing, a once high-flying bank that crumbled. He has been called in for questioning by Mr. Hauksson’s office but has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

Yet, in the four years since the Icelandic Parliament passed a law ordering the appointment of an unnamed special prosecutor to investigate those blamed for the country’s spectacular meltdown in 2008, only a handful of bankers have been convicted.

Ministers in a left-leaning coalition government elected after the crash agree that the wheels of justice have ground slowly, but they call for patience, explaining that the process must follow the law, not vengeful passions.

“We are not going after people just to satisfy public anger,” said Steingrimur J. Sigfusson, Iceland’s minister of industry, a former finance minister and leader of the Left-Green Movement that is part of the governing coalition.

Hordur Torfa, a popular singer-songwriter who helped organize protests that forced the previous conservative government to resign, acknowledged that “people are getting impatient” but said they needed to accept that “this is not the French Revolution. I don’t believe in taking bankers out and hanging them or shooting them.”

Others are less patient. “The whole process is far too slow,” said Thorarinn Einarsson, a left-wing activist. “It only shows that ‘banksters’ can get away with doing whatever they want.”

Mr. Hauksson, the special prosecutor, said he was frustrated by the slow pace but thought it vital that his office scrupulously follow legal procedure. “Revenge is not something we want as our main driver in this process. Our work must be proper today and be seen as proper in the future,” he said.

Part of the difficulty in prosecuting bankers, he said, is that the law is often unclear on what constitutes a criminal offense in high finance. “Greed is not a crime,” he noted. “But the question is: where does greed lead?”

Mr. Hauksson said it was often easy to show that bankers violated their own internal rules for lending and other activities, but “as in all cases involving theft or fraud, the most difficult thing is proving intent.”

And there are the bankers themselves. Those who have been brought in for questioning often bristle at being asked to account for their actions. “They are not used to being questioned. These people are not used to finding themselves in this situation,” Mr. Hauksson said. They also hire expensive lawyers.

The special prosecutor’s office initially had only five staff members but now has more than 100 investigators, lawyers and financial experts, and it has relocated to a big new office. It has opened about 100 cases, with more than 120 people now under investigation for possible crimes relating to an Icelandic financial sector that grew so big it dwarfed the rest of the economy.

To help ease Mr. Hauksson’s task, legislators amended the law to allow investigators easy access to confidential bank information, something that previously required a court order.

Parliament also voted to put the country’s prime minister at the time of the banking debacle on trial for negligence before a special tribunal. (A proposal to try his cabinet failed.) Mr. Hauksson was not involved in the case against the former leader, Geir H. Haarde, who last year was found guilty of failing to keep ministers properly informed about the 2008 crisis but was acquitted on more serious charges that could have resulted in a prison sentence.

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The World's Tweets Light Up the Globe in Stunning Live Visualization

It’s simple, but lovely. Web designer Franck Ernewein‘s real-time Twitter visualization, Tweetping, drops a bright pixel at the location of every tweet in the world, starting as soon as you open the page.

The result is a constantly changing image that grows to look like a nighttime satellite shot, bright spots swarming over the most developed areas. But Ernewein has packaged it all in a subtly interactive visualization that avoids distracting the viewer while still imparting a great amount of information.

Meanwhile, a selection of tweets are projected, along with latest hashtags and mentions, all while tracking total tweets, words, and characters. The length of the two gray lines on the display represent the number of characters and words in each tweet.

Though it’s one of the most beautiful, Tweetping is far from the first to display geotagged tweet information; coders have built sites to display election tweets, adjustable parameter maps, and even 3-D visualizations.

Tweetping even represents Antarctica, but not the ISS. And there’s no pause button; like Twitter itself, Tweetping’s data accrues incessantly; there’s no off switch but the back button.

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Last of 1940s hitmakers Andrews Sisters dies in California

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Patty Andrews, the last surviving member of popular The Andrews Sisters singing trio of the 1940s and 1950s, has died in California at the age of 94, her spokesman said on Wednesday.

Alan Eichler said Andrews died of natural causes at her home in the Northridge area of Los Angeles.

Patty Andrews was the youngest of the threesome who made up The Andrews Sisters, whose tight harmonies with “Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy” and “Don’t Sit Under the Apple Tree” were hits.

The Andrews Sisters sold more than 75 million records and became household names in the 1940s when they entertained World War Two troops in Africa, the United States and Europe.

The sisters specialized in swing and played with some of the best-known big bands of the era, including those led by Glen Miller, Benny Goodman and Tommy Dorsey.

They also appeared in 16 films, including roles alongside Bud Abbott and Lou Costello in “Buck Privates” and “Hold that Ghost,” and with Bob Hope and Bing Crosby in “Road to Rio.”

Born in Minnesota, the sisters started their careers by performing in local talent shows and moved to California after finding fame. LaVerne Andrews died of cancer in 1967, and Maxene Andrews died in 1995 of a heart attack.

(Reporting By Jill Serjeant; Editing by Philip Barbara)

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Ferrol Sams, Doctor Turned Novelist, Dies at 90

Ferrol Sams, a country doctor who started writing fiction in his late 50s and went on to win critical praise and a devoted readership for his humorous and perceptive novels and stories that drew on his medical practice and his rural Southern roots, died on Tuesday at his home in Lafayette, Ga. He was 90.

The cause, said his son Ferrol Sams III, also a doctor, was that he was “slap wore out.”

“He lived a full life,” his son said. “He didn’t leave anything in the tank.”

Dr. Sams grew up on a farm in the rural Piedmont area of Georgia, seven mud-road miles from the nearest town. He was a boy during the Depression; books meant escape and discovery. He read “Robinson Crusoe,” then Mark Twain and Charles Dickens. One of his English professors at Mercer University, in Macon, suggested he consider a career in writing, but he chose another route to examining the human condition: medical school.

When he was 58 — after he had served in World War II, started a medical practice with his wife, raised his four children and stopped devoting so much of his mornings to preparing lessons for Sunday school at the Methodist church — he began writing “Run With the Horsemen,” a novel based on his youth. It was published in 1982.

“In the beginning was the land,” the book begins. “Shortly thereafter was the father.”

In The New York Times Book Review, the novelist Robert Miner wrote, “Mr. Sams’s approach to his hero’s experiences is nicely signaled in these two opening sentences.”

He added: “I couldn’t help associating the gentility, good-humored common sense and pace of this novel with my image of a country doctor spinning yarns. The writing is elegant, reflective and amused. Mr. Sams is a storyteller sure of his audience, in no particular hurry, and gifted with perfect timing.”

Dr. Sams modeled the lead character in “Run With the Horsemen,” Porter Osborne Jr., on himself, and featured him in two more novels, “The Whisper of the River” and “When All the World Was Young,” which followed him into World War II.

Dr. Sams also wrote thinly disguised stories about his life as a physician. In “Epiphany,” he captures the friendship that develops between a literary-minded doctor frustrated by bureaucracy and a patient angry over past racism and injustice.

Ferrol Sams Jr. was born Sept. 26, 1922, in Woolsey, Ga. He received a bachelor’s degree from Mercer in 1942 and his medical degree from Emory University in 1949. In his addition to his namesake, survivors include his wife, Dr. Helen Fletcher Sams; his sons Jim and Fletcher; a daughter, Ellen Nichol; eight grandchildren; and nine great-grandchildren.

Some critics tired of what they called the “folksiness” in Dr. Sams’s books. But he did not write for the critics, he said. In an interview with the Georgia Writers Hall of Fame, Dr. Sams was asked what audience he wrote for. Himself, he said.

“If you lose your sense of awe, or if you lose your sense of the ridiculous, you’ve fallen into a terrible pit,” he added. “The only thing that’s worse is never to have had either.”

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Strategies: World Economy Is Far From Safe, a Canadian Economist Says

WHEN you see a car being driven firmly within its lane and well under the speed limit, there’s nothing to worry about.

Or is there?

If you’re David A. Rosenberg, the glass-half-empty economist, there most certainly is. He says the world economy is like that car. And where others see stability and recovery, he sees “a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time.”

At this particular moment, he says, the car happens to be in the middle of the road. But he can’t help but ask, “Is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?”

Mr. Rosenberg isn’t certain of the answer. But despite the cheer pervading the stock market and the relatively upbeat perspective of most economists, he says he isn’t convinced that the car will remain safely out of those ditches.

Formerly the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, and now proudly back in his native Canada as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, Mr. Rosenberg writes a market newsletter that is always provocative, often cantankerous and frequently out of step with the Wall Street consensus. He has been called a “permabear,” a label that he says is exaggerated but not entirely without merit.

“I’d say I’m as pragmatic as possible and not locked into one position,” he says, “but I do understand that I have a much better record forecasting rain than in predicting the return of sunshine.”

His record bears that out. Mr. Rosenberg correctly called the start of the last two recessions. But he was late in recognizing the strength of what has become a long bull market. In May 2009, when the stock market was in an early stage of its climb, his worries about the economy made him resolutely bearish on stocks. “I’d lock in my gains right now,” he told me then.

But his clients have generally done very well if they’ve followed his cautious advice, which called for buying fixed-income securities early in the bond market’s long boom. His mantra is “safety and income at a reasonable price.”

For a gimlet-eyed perspective on the current stock market joy, I called him last week and asked him what, exactly, has been propelling shares higher.

His answer, in two words, was “the Fed” — the Federal Reserve and its monthly $85 billion purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which are being piled on top of a balance sheet that swelled to a gargantuan $3 trillion last week.

Other analysts have pointed to a recent surge in stock mutual fund purchases by individuals, as opposed to the big institutional investors like pension funds, endowments and other money managers. The earnings season has been reasonably strong, and, at least in recent weeks, there has been no outright global economic disaster emanating from Washington, the euro zone, Tokyo or the oil fields of the Middle East.

These factors are all relevant, he allows, but they pale next to the direct and powerful relationship between the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet and the stock market.

The Fed’s control of short-term interest rates has always had a major impact on the markets, and the adage “Don’t fight the Fed” is a bit of Wall Street wisdom that has stood up for decades. But since the Fed lowered its benchmark Fed funds rate to near zero in December 2008, short-term rates have ceased to be a meaningful indicator because they cannot be lowered any further.

Instead, to provide further monetary stimulus to the economy, the Fed has embarked on a series of quantitative-easing measures — direct purchases of financial assets.

Mr. Rosenberg says his calculations show that there is now an 85 percent correlation between the growth of that Fed balance sheet and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. If that relationship continues — and he’s not certain that it will — the market could keep rallying, though he says he believes it’s due for a correction. On Wednesday, the Fed reiterated its pledge to keep interest rates low and to keep making asset purchases for what effectively will be many months to come.

The Fed’s expansionary policies are contingent on weakness in the labor market and the overall economy. Well, the unemployment rate in January rose to 7.9 percent, the Labor Department announced on Friday. And the Fed says that as long as inflation is below 2.5 percent — and it is well below that level now — and unemployment is above 6.5 percent, it will keep rates ultralow. In addition, the gross domestic product declined at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the last quarter of 2012, the first decline recorded since 2009.

MR. ROSENBERG says he does not believe that we are in a recession now but that we are very close to one. “Anemic growth is my baseline scenario,” he says. A shock could undermine the economy. And there is no assurance, of course, that the Fed can keep propping up equity asset prices.

So he advises that for diversification alone, investors should keep holding onto bonds and other carefully selected fixed-income instruments; in addition, there is a great likelihood that inflation will stay low and longer-term rates will be constrained, which would be beneficial for fixed-income prices.

He recommends playing the equity markets cautiously by seeking high-dividend-paying stocks of well-managed companies. At the moment, he says, those include Blackstone, the asset manager; Merck, the drug maker; and Yahoo, the Internet portal, among United States stocks. And he suggests that United States citizens hedge their bets by keeping 20 percent of their assets in Canada, which, he says, is fiscally sound and is likely to have higher growth and lower inflation than its southern neighbor. He advises holding Brookfield Infrastructure, which owns and manages utilities, energy and timber assets, and Crescent Point Energy, an oil and gas exploration company.

Above all else, he says, preserve your assets and your safety. Watch out for reckless behavior in the economy as well as on the roads. You never know what is about to come hurtling your way.

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